A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
