Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
